Co · The Cobalt Desk

Cobalt

The metal everyone wants out of their battery — and can't quit.

Bulls vs. Bears — CobaltThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

Nickel-rich cathodes still need some cobalt for thermal stability at the premium, long-range end.
Supply is a by-product of DRC copper — nobody mines cobalt for its own sake, so it can't ramp on demand.
Western buyers will pay up for traceable, non-DRC, non-China units they can actually source.
Glencore's hand on the Mutanda switch puts a credible floor under the price.
Defense and aerospace superalloy demand is sticky and price-insensitive.

The Bear Case

LFP chemistry uses zero cobalt and keeps taking EV market share.
Cathode makers have thrifted cobalt loading down for a decade and aren't done.
DRC + Chinese midstream means structural oversupply whenever copper economics are good.
The 2018 scarcity panic aged badly; demand keeps undershooting the bull forecasts.
Artisanal and provenance risk caps how much Western OEMs will design cobalt in.

49NeutralHeat Index · 0–100

Price momentum54

News flow46

Equity performance44

Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Cobalt US$/t	27,500	+4.0% 6M	+6.0% 1Y		49

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

Cobalt — trailing price

Indicative

The desk — term structure & inventories

What the spot price won't tell you: the shape of the futures curve (who's paying up for metal now) and where warehouse stock is heading. Figures are indicative until a live LME/CME feed is wired.

Cobalt

Drawing-13.2% (12 mo)LME

Latest 1,580 t · LME stock report (indicative)

Cobalt is the cathode stabilizer that the industry keeps swearing it will engineer away, and keeps not engineering away. Supply is brutally concentrated — the DRC and its Zambian neighbours do the heavy lifting, and a lot of the midstream runs through China. Every "cobalt-free chemistry" headline deserves a hard look at whether the chemistry actually ships at scale, or just ships in a press release.

Latest takes

Co · CobaltThe Water Cooler

DRC quotas built a $20s/lb floor under cobalt — and America's only audited mine sits in a private vault

DRC export quotas have lifted cobalt metal back into the mid-$20s/lb, clearing the restart math for Jervois' Idaho Cobalt Operations — but that ex-China unit is now locked inside a delisted, privately held vehicle.

Jun 19, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Co · Cobalt

The industry has been 'going cobalt-free' for a decade. It's still buying cobalt.

LFP took share, every cathode maker promised to engineer cobalt out, and yet the DRC still anchors the metal — and in 2025 the Congolese government proved it, banning then rationing exports and roughly doubling the price. Read the chemistry that ships, not the chemistry in the press release.

Jun 10, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Cobalt operations on the map

Operation	Country	Owner	Stage
Tenke Fungurume	DR Congo	CMOC (China Molybdenum)	Producing
Mutanda	DR Congo	Glencore	Producing

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →