Mkt · The Markets Desk · (beyond the basket)

Markets

Prices, demand drivers, M&A, and the macro that moves all of it.

Bulls vs. Bears — MarketsThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

  • Electrification is a multi-decade, capital-hungry demand supercycle for metals.
  • Chronic underinvestment in new supply across the complex sets up future squeezes.
  • Reshoring and friend-shoring add a strategic premium to ex-China supply.
  • M&A is heating up as majors buy growth they failed to explore for.
  • Real assets look attractive against a backdrop of fiscal excess.

The Bear Case

  • A global growth scare hits every cyclical metal at once.
  • China is both the demand engine and the swing supplier — a double-edged dependency.
  • Policy can giveth (subsidies) and taketh (bans, tariffs, taxes) without warning.
  • Capital chases the last cycle's winners straight into the next oversupply.
  • Rates and the dollar can overwhelm any micro supply story for quarters at a time.
The cross-cutting desk: where the money, the policy, and the demand curves meet the rocks. This is where ferrous and precious meet the battery basket, where the M&A gets dissected, and where the macro backdrop everything trades against gets called.

Capital raisings

Selected historical debt and equity raisings, linked to issuer filings or identified news reports. Coverage reviewed 27 October 2026; this is not a complete list of current funding activity. Each row retains its original deal date and source. Fields not disclosed are marked n/d.

IssuerTypeAmountDateBroker(s)Pricing / termsUse of funds
PLS Group PLS
Lithium
DebtUS$700m face valueOct 2026n/d8.00% coupon · Due 2032Completed 26 October. General corporate purposes, including capital expenditure and growth opportunities. Face value is not net proceeds.↗
Alcoa (wholly-owned subsidiary issuers) AA
Bauxite / alumina / aluminium
DebtUS$2.6bn face valueSep 2026n/d6.625% (US$1.5bn) / 6.875% (US$1.1bn) coupon · Due 2034 / 2036Completed 23 September. Fund the proposed South32 assets acquisition cash consideration and related costs, together with cash on hand. The financing closed; the acquisition remained subject to conditions.↗
Brightstar Resources BTR
Gold
DebtUS$120m face valueMar 2026n/d12.5% cash; issued at 94% of par coupon · 4 years, March 2030 · defer: Principal amortisation starts after 18 months; interest payable quarterlyGoldfields development. Proceeds in escrow; disbursement subject to conditions precedent and cost-to-complete tests. Historical terms in FY26 accounts, note 20.↗
Mineral Resources MIN
Lithium / iron ore
DebtUS$1.3bnApr 2026n/d6.00% (2032) / 6.25% (2034) coupon · US$650m due 2032 + US$650m due 2034Refinance higher-cost debt; extend maturities and cut average cost of debt from 8.4% to 7.4%.↗
Nouveau Monde Graphite NMG
Graphite
EquityUS$96.5mApr 2026BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financialn/dMatawinie mine / Bécancour anode development; 52.4m subscription receipts at US$1.84.↗
Nouveau Monde Graphite NMG
Graphite
EquityUS$213.2mApr 2026n/dn/dStrategic placement (Canada Growth Fund, Investissement Québec, ENI) for Matawinie commercial development.↗
New Found Gold NFG
Gold
EquityUS$115.1mApr 2026EdgePoint Investment Group, Eric Sprott (cornerstone)n/dPart of a ~US$205m package to develop the Queensway gold project, Newfoundland (bought deal, closed Apr 2026).↗
New Found Gold NFG
Gold
DebtUS$105mApr 2026EdgePoint Investment Groupn/dSenior secured credit facility alongside the equity raise to fund Queensway gold development.↗
Selkirk Copper Mines SCMI
Copper
EquityC$30.0mApr 2026Canaccord Genuity, Haywood Securities, Raymond James, Stifeln/dBought deal (incl. flow-through) for the Minto copper-gold-silver project; upsized from C$20m on demand.↗
LaFleur Minerals LFLR
Gold
EquityC$8.0mMay 2026Red Cloud Securitiesn/dBought deal (up to C$9.2m with over-allotment) for the Beacon gold mill restart and Swanson exploration.↗
Eramet ERA
Nickel / manganese
Equity€500mMay 2026n/dn/dRights issue (pre-emptive) approved 27 May 2026 to repair the balance sheet after a debt jump; backed by the Duval family and French state.↗
Graphite One GPH
Graphite
EquityC$30mFeb 2026BMO Capital Marketsn/d (units at C$1.75) discountAnode-plant engineering, permitting and working capital for Graphite Creek, Alaska.↗
Québec Nickel QNI
Nickel
EquityC$0.5mJan 2026n/dn/d (units at C$0.125) discountNon-brokered placement for working capital, exploration and strategic opportunities.↗

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