Li · The Lithium Desk

Lithium

The most violent price chart in the complex. Mind the units.

Bulls vs. Bears — LithiumThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

No credible mass-market battery chemistry replaces lithium this decade.
Low prices are curtailing supply and killing projects — sowing the next squeeze.
Grid-scale storage is a second demand engine on top of EVs.
Western buyers want ex-China lithium chemicals and will pay to de-risk.
Permitting and ramp delays mean new supply chronically arrives late.

The Bear Case

The market is violently reflexive — every spike over-invites supply.
Brine, claystone and DLE expansions can flood the market when prices recover.
There is no real scarcity of lithium in the crust — only of cheap, fast supply.
EV demand forecasts keep getting cut; the curve is softer than 2022 assumed.
Most juniors sit high on the cost curve and don't survive a low-price year.

64WarmHeat Index · 0–100

Price momentum74

News flow58

Equity performance56

Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Lithium Carbonate US$/t (LCE)	13,500	+22.0% 6M	+38.0% 1Y		64

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

Lithium Carbonate — trailing price

Indicative

The desk — term structure & inventories

What the spot price won't tell you: the shape of the futures curve (who's paying up for metal now) and where warehouse stock is heading. Figures are indicative until a live LME/CME feed is wired.

Lithium Carbonate

Contango+7.8% / yr1-yr roll -8.8%

Deferreds trade over spot — comfortable supply and positive carry. A long rolling the front bleeds the spread.

GFEX / CME LC futures (indicative)

Lithium is the core battery metal and the most reflexive market in the basket — it overshoots up, overshoots down, and takes a lot of juniors with it. Brine vs hard-rock, LCE vs hydroxide vs carbonate: the units decide the argument, so we keep them straight.

Latest takes

Li · LithiumThe Long Game

Liontown hits its 1.5Mtpa run-rate and turns cash-positive — the spodumene cycle just turned with it

Liontown reached its Kathleen Valley underground run-rate target early and booked its first positive net cash flow as spodumene prices rebounded, while Pilbara Minerals posted record output at A$560–600/t costs.

Jun 19, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Li · LithiumHard Truths

Lithium nearly doubled in a quarter. The knife stopped falling — now the units decide who wins.

The most violent chart in the complex just V'd off a nine-year low — battery-grade carbonate roughly doubled through Q1 2026 and sits up around 30% on the year. Before you chase it, get straight on brine vs hard-rock, carbonate vs hydroxide, and who actually has the cost curve to print.

Jun 17, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Lithium operations on the map

Operation	Country	Owner	Stage
Greenbushes	Australia	Talison (Tianqi/IGO + Albemarle JV)	Producing
Salar de Atacama	Chile	SQM & Albemarle (CORFO leases)	Producing
Thacker Pass	United States	Lithium Americas (GM offtake)	Construction
Pilgangoora	Australia	Pilbara Minerals	Producing

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →