Fe · The Ferrous Desk · (beyond the basket)

Ferrous

Iron ore, met coal and steel — the dirty backbone the clean economy is bolted to.

Bulls vs. Bears — FerrousThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

  • Every grid, turbine, EV and mine needs enormous quantities of steel.
  • Iron ore is the cash machine that bankrolls the majors' copper and nickel bets.
  • Premium hard coking coal supply is constrained and slow to replace.
  • Indian and developing-world steel demand has a long runway.
  • Decarbonising steel (DRI, green H2) is decades away — met coal isn't going anywhere soon.

The Bear Case

  • Chinese property and construction weakness hangs over iron ore demand.
  • Scrap-based electric-arc steelmaking slowly erodes primary iron ore intensity.
  • Met coal faces terminal-decline narratives, ESG capital flight and financing risk.
  • Iron ore supply from the majors is abundant and low-cost.
  • Carbon border taxes and green-steel mandates threaten the coking-coal model.
42NeutralHeat Index · 0–100
Price momentum40
News flow40
Equity performance41
Volume53
Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Iron Ore (62% Fe)
US$/t
102-10.0%
6M
-14.0%
1Y
39
Coking Coal (premium HCC)
US$/t
188-12.0%
6M
-18.0%
1Y
40
Steel (HRC, US)
US$/short ton
760-4.0%
6M
-8.0%
1Y
45

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

Iron Ore (62% Fe) — trailing price

Indicative
101105110115119OctMarNow

The desk — term structure & inventories

What the spot price won't tell you: the shape of the futures curve (who's paying up for metal now) and where warehouse stock is heading. Figures are indicative until a live LME/CME feed is wired.

Iron Ore (62% Fe)

Backwardation-6.9% / yr1-yr roll +10.9%
spot88.00102Spot1023M99.006M96.0012M92.0024M88.00

Spot trades over deferreds — the market is paying up for metal now. Tight physical, bullish tell.

SGX 62% Fe swaps (indicative)

The ferrous complex isn't in the acronym, but you can't read mining without it. Iron ore funds the majors that fund everything else; metallurgical (coking) coal still makes the steel; and steel is the skeleton the energy transition hangs on. We cover it straight — including the coal — because pretending steel runs on vibes helps nobody.

Latest takes

Fe · Ferrous

Queensland's 40% Coal Royalty Isn't Just High. It's a Different Kind of Tax Than Its Rivals Charge.

Queensland's top coal royalty rate is 40 per cent — nearly four times the Queensland Resources Council's cited global average of 12.9 per cent, and above New South Wales (10.8 per cent), the current US federal coal royalty (7 per cent), and British Columbia's net-revenue tax (2–13 per cent, and only after capital is recovered). QRC is a lobby group with an obvious stake in that comparison, but the design flaw underneath it — a price-tier royalty with no reference to cost — is real regardless of who's pointing at it.

Aug 31, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction
Fe · FerrousHard Truths

BHP will not give you a headcount for the last trucks at Mining Area C

The Nightly reported on 28 August 2026 that BHP is cutting roles at Mining Area C as autonomous haulage expands into MAC East. Industry sources, not the company, floated ‘up to about 10 per cent’ of a 1,596 headcount; BHP has not confirmed a number.

Aug 30, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Ferrous operations on the map

OperationCountryOwnerStage
Lake GilesAustraliaMacarthur MineralsDevelopment
Pilbara (iron ore hubs)AustraliaBHP, Rio Tinto, FortescueProducing
Onslow IronAustraliaMineral ResourcesProducing
Vulcan ComplexAustraliaVitrinite (in receivership — KordaMentha / Cor Cordis)Care & Maintenance
Bowen BasinAustraliaBHP/Mitsubishi (BMA), Glencore, othersProducing
CarajásBrazilValeProducing

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →