What the spot price won't tell you: the shape of the futures curve (who's paying up for metal now) and where warehouse stock is heading. Figures are indicative until a live LME/CME feed is wired.
Iron Ore (62% Fe)
Backwardation-6.9% / yr1-yr roll +10.9%
Spot trades over deferreds — the market is paying up for metal now. Tight physical, bullish tell.
SGX 62% Fe swaps (indicative)
The ferrous complex isn't in the acronym, but you can't read mining without it. Iron ore funds the majors that fund everything else; metallurgical (coking) coal still makes the steel; and steel is the skeleton the energy transition hangs on. We cover it straight — including the coal — because pretending steel runs on vibes helps nobody.
Champion Iron expects first commercial DR-grade pellet feed from its Bloom Lake DRPF project by the end of June 2026, upgrading roughly half of the mine's output toward 69% Fe just as steel decarbonisation lifts demand for low-impurity ore.
Queensland's 2022 progressive coal royalty, topping out at a 40% marginal rate, is now reshaping investment and production decisions across the Bowen Basin's coking-coal producers.
Three Bowen Basin coking-coal names — Vitrinite, Bowen Coking Coal and Fitzroy — have all hit the wall or changed hands in under a year, and the common thread is the price of money, not the price of coal.
The least glamorous tonne in mining bankrolls the most glamorous bets. Before you get excited about a copper growth pipeline, ask where the cash to build it comes from. The answer is usually red dirt from the Pilbara.
Jun 13, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction
Ferrous operations on the map
Operation
Country
Owner
Stage
Pilbara (iron ore hubs)
Australia
BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue
Producing
Vulcan Complex
Australia
Vitrinite (in receivership — KordaMentha / Cor Cordis)
Global Mining & Metals · JULY 31, 2026